BRIEFING F1: JAPANESE GP

The 2025 championship reaches its third round, but it’s only now that things are starting to get truly serious. Suzuka, an iconic and timeless circuit, serves as the first real test to see who truly nailed their technical project—and who will be left playing catch-up. Think of it as the Eastern Montmeló: technical, complete, and revealing. And, above all, decisive in shaping at least the first half of the season.

For one team in particular, this weekend matters more than most. Ferrari arrives in Japan with an urgent need to turn the page after a shocking double disqualification in China. A bizarre weekend: pole and victory in the Sprint, then a Sunday disaster. The blame? A flawed setup, ride heights outside regulations, and a SF-25 forced to run too high off the ground, sacrificing efficiency and downforce in the process.

No upgrades are expected at Suzuka, but back in Maranello the team has been working hard in the simulator, trying to find the right compromise between suspension tuning, ride height, and aero load. The goal is to rediscover the level of competitiveness seen during the Chinese Sprint. If they manage to unlock the setup, Ferrari might be able to go head-to-head with McLaren, which so far has looked quick, but not always easy to keep in the optimal performance window.

Right now, McLaren comes into the weekend as the favorite. If they can put together a clean weekend—no mistakes, no hiccups—they’ll be in a strong position to cash in and bank valuable points for the championship.

Mercedes and Red Bull also arrive in Suzuka with something to prove. Mercedes is betting everything on consistency: minimal mistakes, maximum results with what they’ve got, a steadily improving Antonelli, and a reliable, solid Russell. If things go well here too, the Brackley-based team could pick up serious momentum for the rest of the season.

Red Bull, on the other hand, heads into its quasi-home Grand Prix under tense circumstances. The car remains competitive only in Verstappen’s hands, while the Dutchman shows visible frustration and seems increasingly drawn to new prospects for 2026. Japan will also see the debut of Tsunoda, replacing Lawson, who’s been sent back to Racing Bulls. For the Japanese driver, it’s an incredibly high-stakes moment: he’ll have to prove he can keep up with Max, right in front of his home crowd—and under the watchful eyes of key partner Honda. A real trial by fire.

At the back of the grid, all eyes are on Haas and Williams, two of the more promising surprises in this early part of the season. Meanwhile, Aston Martin, Sauber, Racing Bulls, and Alpine are still struggling to find their footing. For some of them, Suzuka might already mark an early end to any hopes for 2025.

Adding to the complexity is a newly resurfaced track and cooler temperatures, with forecasts not exceeding 68°F (20°C) all weekend. On a circuit that’s notoriously tough on tires, race pace management could create notable gaps between those who have found their rhythm and those still searching.

Suzuka doesn't forgive mistakes—and rarely leaves room for second chances. For many, this is already a make-or-break moment. In a modern Formula 1 era that often lacks unpredictability, we can only hope that Japan delivers some true on-track battles. It may not seem like the most likely setting for surprises… but that’s exactly why it just might deliver.

© Simone Marchetti Cavalieri