BRIEFING F1: BAHRAIN GP

This Sunday marks the Bahrain Grand Prix, the second leg of the Middle Eastern triple-header, which will wrap up next week with the Saudi Arabian race.

Before Formula 1 returns to its European circuits, the paddock faces two key events in the Middle East that could shake things up. Bahrain, in particular, poses a tricky challenge for teams and drivers, with its notoriously abrasive asphalt and what are likely to be the hottest temperatures of the season so far.

On a track packed with low- and medium-speed corners and heavy braking zones, having a car that’s stable under braking, has strong traction, and can manage tire overheating will be absolutely crucial.

Tire management, in fact, could be Ferrari’s Achilles’ heel this weekend. The team arrives in Sakhir with a promising but still unfinished car. The main issues revolve around ride height, and there’s no room for error. Major upgrades are expected, but the track will ultimately determine whether the changes deliver. The SF-25 remains a work in progress, and Bahrain’s medium-speed layout could highlight its current limitations. One small advantage might come from the track’s smooth surface, which allows a bit more freedom with setup — but that’s a narrow margin to count on.

At the top of the contenders list is McLaren — a car that’s solid, fast, and adaptable. The real question for the British team is whether its drivers can convert that pace into results. Norris and Piastri have the potential to dominate, but they’ll need to show maturity after the inconsistencies seen in Suzuka.

And then, of course, there’s Verstappen. The Dutchman — soon to be a father — remains the one to beat. Even though Bahrain’s layout may not perfectly suit his strengths, he’s made a habit of delivering elite performances no matter the conditions. The real unknown is still his teammate, who remains too far off the mark to be a real factor.

Mercedes approaches the weekend cautiously, hoping to capitalize on any slip-ups from the front-runners. The mix of experience and youth could work in their favor, but for Antonelli, this will be a demanding race. Sakhir can be unforgiving, especially for a driver still finding his feet.

In the midfield, uncertainty reigns. Early season showings give reasons for optimism at Williams and Haas, and Racing Bulls could spring a surprise or two. But predicting who will truly shine is a gamble — the pecking order can change dramatically from one weekend to the next.

According to many in the paddock, the race itself will matter more than qualifying. Still, on a track where clean air counts for a lot, a strong start and first stint remain critical. Strategy, pit stop timing, and the pit wall’s ability to read the race — using moves like the undercut — will carry real weight.

The fact that everyone has already tested here makes it likely that teams will quickly lock in a decent setup, narrowing the gap between cars and shifting the spotlight back onto qualifying — which could prove decisive once again.

McLaren looks poised to aim high, maybe even secure a 1–2 finish. Verstappen will, as always, try to wedge himself into the fight, but this time Red Bull comes with a few more question marks than usual. Historically, Bahrain qualifying sessions see razor-thin gaps: if Max can pull off a perfect lap in Q3, the race might take a very interesting turn.

© Simone Marchetti Cavalieri