BRIEFING F1: AUSTRALIA GP

The 2025 Formula 1 season is just around the corner, the last one before yet another regulatory revolution that, at least on paper, could shake up the competitive order. However, history has shown that these revolutions rarely bring dramatic changes.

The season kicks off at Albert Park in Melbourne, a circuit that evokes memories of past eras and carries a sense of nostalgia for a perhaps more authentic motorsport. But with what mindset do we approach this season? And more importantly, what will the real balance of power on the grid be?

Looking at the final GPs of 2024 and pre-season testing, McLaren appears to have taken on the role Red Bull once held in the early years of Verstappen’s dominance. Blistering in qualifying, impressive in race pace, and coming off a constructors’ championship win, the Woking-based team is the clear favorite. But Formula 1 is unpredictable, and while Norris and Piastri have a highly competitive car, there are many factors at play.

Interestingly, Red Bull does not seem to be among the main challengers. Signs of struggle were already apparent in 2024, and testing has confirmed the downward trend. Verstappen looks frustrated, and the team will have to limit the damage in the early races while hoping to regain competitiveness over the course of the season. But the situation is far from ideal: Newey has left, Horner is distracted by off-track issues, Marko seems increasingly out of touch, and Verstappen himself appears to be looking elsewhere.

Ferrari, as always, starts with hope and ambition, but time will tell if these are justified. The new car is an evolution of the SF-24, with significant modifications, including a revised front suspension geometry that will require an adaptation period. The key will be development: if the team can improve throughout the season, it could be in the mix. Otherwise, it risks falling into the same cycle we’ve seen too many times before.

Mercedes enters the season with an intriguing new element: the arrival of Andrea Kimi Antonelli, a rising Italian motorsport talent. The team seems to be on par with Ferrari in terms of performance and could be in contention for race wins. The big question is whether Russell and the young Italian will have what it takes to bring the Silver Arrows back to their former glory.

Among the outsiders, Williams is the most intriguing name. With a revamped technical structure and the arrival of Carlos Sainz, the team could return to competitiveness. Aston Martin, on the other hand, seems to be in yet another transitional season, waiting for Adrian Newey’s contributions in 2026. And then there’s Alonso: at 44, he’s still here, ready to fight—but for how much longer?

Sauber, soon to be Audi, is looking toward 2026 with Mattia Binotto leading the project. It remains to be seen how much decision-making power he will actually have. Meanwhile, among the lower-ranked teams, Haas and Alpine find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum: the former criticized for signing Ocon, the latter praised for letting him go. However, the presence of Flavio Briatore at the helm of Alpine brings back old memories and raises more than a few concerns.

On the driver front, 2025 sees the arrival of several young talents. Bearman and Lawson have already shown glimpses of potential, while Hadjar, Bortoleto, Doohan, and Antonelli are still unknown quantities. Antonelli appears to be a future star, while Hadjar and Doohan may struggle under internal pressure and tough competition.

As for the first race, opinions are divided: some see McLaren as dominant, while others believe Melbourne’s track is not a true indicator of the season’s pecking order. In any case, the points at stake are worth just as much as those in any other Grand Prix, and title contenders must start strong. With rain expected on Sunday, mistakes will be even more costly.

The 2025 championship features 24 rounds, and there is a risk that it could become a McLaren-dominated affair. However, the hope is that Ferrari, a resurgent Verstappen, or a surprising Antonelli can make the season more thrilling.

And now, a question for the fans: would you rather see a season where Leclerc fights for the title but loses at the last moment, or a championship victory with Hamilton? I have no doubts—and neither would the Drake. Enjoy the season!

© Simone Marchetti Cavalieri